各種不同股票 會對各種不同因素 作出上漲下跌反應 這篇文章舉出一些例子
On Bird Flu, Avoid Flocking
An outbreak of bird flu in China is playing out in the markets as predictably as a pandemic disaster movie. It starts with a few coughs, moves on to scientists in anticontamination suits and, finally, there is panic. In the movies, though, catastrophe is usually averted.
Chinese investors aren't straying too far from the plot. Bird-flu fears were first raised early last week. By Monday evening, authorities said there had been 24 cases of the H7N9 strain of avian flu, including seven deaths, in Shanghai and the surrounding provinces.
Those numbers are small, and, important, there is no evidence that the H7N9 strain can be transmitted between humans. Still, the markets have reacted strongly, with some Chinese stocks sharply lower. On Monday, Air China's Shanghai shares fell 3.4%, while department-store operator Parkson Retail Group fell 3.6% in Hong Kong.
It is difficult for investors to tell how the crisis will play out. But there may be valuable lessons from the 2003 outbreak of severe acute respiratory syndrome. At the height of the crisis, in May 2003, China's retail-sales growth dropped to 7% year on year from 12% in April. Air-passenger traffic shrank 71%. Hong Kong's Hang Seng Index and its real-estate market plummeted. The overall mainland China stock market held up better, though insurance stocks lost 18.3%, airline stocks fell 10.6% and agriculture shares lost 8.9% during the SARS period, Citi notes.
For the most part, though, there was no lasting economic impact and the market's downturn was short-lived. The Hang Seng recovered to finish 2003 up about a third from where it started the year, for instance.
These are early days in the current crisis. But there are signs the response from China's government is more transparent and effective than it was in 2003. Back then, official secrecy fostered fears and hampered efforts to prevent the spread of the disease. This time, authorities have acted quickly to shut poultry markets and slaughter birds in areas where infections have been detected. The official media also appear to be keeping the public better informed when cases occur.
The potential economic impact of a wider crisis could weigh on the markets for a while yet. But barring a deeper public-health emergency, the SARS experience suggests that flocking with panicked sellers could be a foolish move.
禽流感陰影下切勿盲目跟風拋售
禽
流感疫情正對中國市場構成衝擊。疫病災難電影中的老套情節眼下正在中國的現實生活中出現：開始是有人咳嗽，然後穿著防污染服的科學家們登場了，再後來，終於引發了恐慌。當然，在這類電影中災難通常都得以避免。
現在，中國投資者離這一場景並不太遠。有關禽流感的擔憂最初在上週初出現。官方數據顯示，截至週一晚間，上海及週邊省份共確診24例H7N9禽流感病例，其中7例死亡。
目 前確診感染H7N9禽流感的病例尚不算多，重要的是，目前也尚未發現有人際傳染的證據。然而，市場還是做出了強烈反應，部分中國股票的股價大幅下挫。中國 國航(Air China) A股週一下跌3.4%。百盛集團(Parkson Retail Group) H股下跌3.6%。
這場禽 流感危機將如何發展，投資者難以預測，但他們或許可以從2003年爆發的嚴重急性呼吸道綜合癥(SARS, 俗稱﹕非典型肺炎)危機中吸取寶貴的經驗。SARS危機在2003年5月份達到了峰期，當月中國的零售額同比增速從前月的12%放緩至7%。航空客運量銳 減71%。香港股市和樓市均出現大跌。花旗(Citi)指出，SARS期間中國大陸股市的總體表現比香港股市要好一些，但保險股仍下跌了18.3%，航空 股和農業股分別跌去10.6%和8.9%。
不過最重要的一點是，SARS危機並沒有產生持久的經濟影響，市場的下滑也只是暫時性的。到2003年底，香港恆生指數已收復失地，而且較2003年年初時的水平高出約三分之一。
此 次禽流感疫情尚處於初期階段。但諸多跡象表明，中國政府這一次的應對比2003年SARS危機時更加透明、高效。彼時，官方瞞報SARS疫情的做法加劇了 人們的恐懼，並妨礙了防控疫情擴散的努力。而這一次中國當局迅速採取行動，關閉了疫區的活禽交易市場並撲殺了交易區內的所有禽鳥。此外，官方媒體似乎也做 到了疫情數據披露的公開透明，讓民眾可以更好地暸解情況。
雖然疫情擴散產生的潛在經濟影響可能會在一段時間內令市場承壓，但SARS危機的經驗告訴我們：除非發生更嚴重的公共衛生事件，否則，盲目跟隨恐慌的投資者一起拋售股票可能是不智之舉。
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