各種不同股票 會對各種不同因素 作出上漲下跌反應 這篇文章舉出一些例子
On Bird Flu, Avoid Flocking
An outbreak of bird flu in China is playing out in the markets as predictably as a pandemic disaster movie. It starts with a few coughs, moves on to scientists in anticontamination suits and, finally, there is panic. In the movies, though, catastrophe is usually averted.
Chinese investors aren't straying too far from the plot. Bird-flu fears were first raised early last week. By Monday evening, authorities said there had been 24 cases of the H7N9 strain of avian flu, including seven deaths, in Shanghai and the surrounding provinces.
Those numbers are small, and, important, there is no evidence that the H7N9 strain can be transmitted between humans. Still, the markets have reacted strongly, with some Chinese stocks sharply lower. On Monday, Air China's Shanghai shares fell 3.4%, while department-store operator Parkson Retail Group fell 3.6% in Hong Kong.
It is difficult for investors to tell how the crisis will play out. But there may be valuable lessons from the 2003 outbreak of severe acute respiratory syndrome. At the height of the crisis, in May 2003, China's retail-sales growth dropped to 7% year on year from 12% in April. Air-passenger traffic shrank 71%. Hong Kong's Hang Seng Index and its real-estate market plummeted. The overall mainland China stock market held up better, though insurance stocks lost 18.3%, airline stocks fell 10.6% and agriculture shares lost 8.9% during the SARS period, Citi notes.
For the most part, though, there was no lasting economic impact and the market's downturn was short-lived. The Hang Seng recovered to finish 2003 up about a third from where it started the year, for instance.
These are early days in the current crisis. But there are signs the response from China's government is more transparent and effective than it was in 2003. Back then, official secrecy fostered fears and hampered efforts to prevent the spread of the disease. This time, authorities have acted quickly to shut poultry markets and slaughter birds in areas where infections have been detected. The official media also appear to be keeping the public better informed when cases occur.
The potential economic impact of a wider crisis could weigh on the markets for a while yet. But barring a deeper public-health emergency, the SARS experience suggests that flocking with panicked sellers could be a foolish move.
